SPECIAL: 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preview

The 2013 Hurricane season starts next Saturday June 1st and ends November 30th. This is my preview for the upcoming season.

Note: Scroll to the end of the post to see my latest forecast!

Review of Facts:

A Tropical Storm (TS) needs sustained winds of at least 39 MPH to be given a name.

Hurricane Categories:

Category 1: Winds of 74-94 MPH
Category 2: Winds of 95-110 MPH.
Category 3: Winds of 111-130 MPH.  A major Hurricane is a cat 3 or higher
Category 4: Winds of 131-155 MPH.
Category 5: Winds of 155 MPH+

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives their projected path based on a combo of global models. The forecast goes out 5 days and predicts position and wind speeds.

New England Review:

Last year Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the NJ coast, but still affected us here in Boston with strong winds and rain.  The last Hurricane to make landfall was Bob in 1991. The last TS to make landfall was Hanna in 2008.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Averages:

Named Storms: 12
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes:3
US Landfalls: 3 (TS or Hurricane)

My forecast for 2013:

Named Storms: 17
Hurricanes: 10
Major Hurricanes 5
US Landfalls: 5 ( TS or Hurricanes)
New England Threats: 2

2013 Forecast of tracks:

This year there will be more storms forming off the coast of Africa and turning north and making a close pass to the US East coast. Other storms will head into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the Gulf coast states. Many major cities could be threatened by a landfalling Hurricane. The height of the season is late August and September, but is important to be ready for a storm at any point in the season.

New England Preview:

I believe that there is an above normal chance for a storm to affect the area this season. Later in the season storms that form out in the Atlantic will come up the coast and make a close pass to the area. The best chance for a storm here is in August thru September.

Boston forecast:

Tonight :Rain showers with mist, drizzle and fog. Low 40. NW wind of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

Sunday: Showers with fog, mist and drizzle in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. High 57. NW wind of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

Sunday night: Clearing and chilly. Lows in the low 40's.

Memorial Day: Sunny and nicer. Highs around 70.

Tuesday: Sunny with highs in the low 70's.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms. Highs in the 70's.