Review of Facts: A Tropical Storm (TS) needs sustained winds of 39 MPH to be given a name.
Hurricane Categories: A Hurricane needs sustained winds of at least 74 MPH to obtain hurricane status. Waters usually need to be at least 80 degrees for a Hurricane to form or gain strength, most common in the tropics.
Category 1: Winds of 74-94 MPH.
Category 2: Winds of 95-110 MPH.
Category 3: Winds of 111-130 MPH. A major Hurricane is Cat 3 or higher.
Category 4: Winds of 131-154 MPH.
Category 5: Winds of 155+ MPH.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives a projected path based on global weather models, and I will base my forecast on their track. The track goes out 5 days and gives projected wind speeds and position.
New England Review: The last Hurricane to make landfall in New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. The last Tropical Storm to make landfall was Hannah in 2008. Last year, Hurricane Earl passed about 60 miles east of Cape Cod in early September. It brought heavy rain to the Cape and Islands and some strong gusts. However, it did not cause any significant damage as it weakened and turned east as it came up the coast. And, it did not make landfall until it hit Nova Scotia, Canada the next day.
Atlantic Hurricane Averages: From 1950-2010
Named Storms: 12
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 3
US Landfalls per year: 6 (TS or Hurricanes)
MY Forecast for 2011:
Named Storms: 16
Hurricanes: 9
Major Hurricanes: 3
US Landfalls: 5 - no Hurricane landfalls last year despite above avg. activity
New England Threats: 2
2011 Forecast of Tracks:
I expect that most storms will come across the Atlantic and hit the Gulf Coast States or the SE coast. I believe that the major centers of Galveston, TX and Miami have an above average chance of a major Hurricane this season. Also, the Carolina and the Georgia coast have a high chance for a storm this year. I believe that most storms will threaten the US coast from late July thru September. However, any coastal resident should be prepared for a Hurricane at any point during the season.
New England Preview:
I believe that New England has a chance for a Hurricane or 2 this year. Most storms will threaten from August thru mid September, as the water is the warmest at this point. Any storm that threatens the SE coast of the US could easily turn NE and come for Southern New England. Although, I expect most storms this year will actually hit the SE states, rather than turn NE and come up the coast. But, there is always the possibility of a storm coming up the east coast this season. Usually, most storms lose strength as it comes up the coast because the water is cooler than 80 degrees. However, any storm that comes up the coast rapidly may be able to hold on to some of its punch. Any coastal residents of New England, including here in Boston should be on guard if a Hurricane approaches. And, the Outer Cape and especially Nantucket get tropical cyclones most often.
Current Outlook: 2011
Nothing has formed yet, however most global models are indicating that a Tropical Disturbance may form in the Caribbean this week. Also, a Typhoon formed in the West Pacific this week reaching MAX winds of 170 MPH! I will continue to update on any Tropical Storm Developments during the season all over the world.
Note: Stay tuned for my Memorial Day forecast Tomorrow!
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