Review of facts: A Tropical Storm needs sustained winds of at least 39 MPH for it to be named.
Hurricane Categories: A hurricane needs sustained winds of at least 74 MPH. Waters usually needs to be at least 80 degrees for a hurricane to form and hold or gain strength.
Category 1: Winds of 74-94 MPH
Cat 2: Winds of 95-110 MPH.
Cat 3: Winds of 111-130 MPH. A major hurricane is category 3 or greater.
Cat 4: 131-155 MPH.
Cat 5-: 155+ MPH- Strongest winds
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a projected path based on special computer models, and that is the track I will base my forecast on throughout the season.
New England review: The last hurricane to make landfall in New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. The last tropical storm to make landfall was Tropical Storm Hannah in 2008. Last year Bill grazed Cape Cod with showers as it passed 250 miles offshore. Then, Tropical Storm Danny passed just SE of Nantucket, and gave us 4 inches of rain and gusty winds. However, it did not make landfall in MA.
Averages: From 1950-2009
Named storms: 10
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 4
US landfall : 6 (Tropical Storms or Hurricanes)
My Forecast for 2010:
Named storms: 16
Hurricanes: 10
Major Hurricanes: 4
US landfalls: 8
New England threats: 3
Forecast of Tracks: I expect most storms to track off of Africa and heads toward southern Florida. Most will go into the Gulf of Mexico or hit Florida, but some will take a right turn and come up the East coast. Some other storms will form in the Caribbean, and move into the Gulf Of Mexico and threaten the gulf coast states. The time period that most hurricanes form is August and early September.
New England forecast: I expect a few hurricanes to threaten New England this summer. When a storm heads toward Florida and takes a turn, most move North or NE. That makes a big difference, as a track to the NE would take it out to sea. However, a more northerly track would take it right into New England. Usually, storms lose some of their strength while heading up the coast because the water is cooler than 80 degrees. When a storm forms off of the Carolina coast, it has a better chance of hitting us. Because if it moves NE from there it would hit part of the MA coastline. I expect most storm threats to be in late July through early September, however we can have a storm at an earlier time.
Current Outlook: A low pressure center is centered near the Bahamas and is expected to intensify. I'm not sure if it will be named, because it may not become truly tropical. Then it will be forced towards the east coast by Monday and hammer the Outer Banks of North Carolina with rain, gusty winds and rough seas. Models are undecided on where it goes from there. One sends it out to sea, the other sends on a loop back to the Bahamas. I will keep you updated in the next couple of days.
Nolan - call and give me a heads up if you think a hurricane might land in Southwest Florida - thanks!
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