A smoky Memorial Day

50 brush fires in eastern Canada are burning, and smoke is being brought into New England on a NW wind, then a SE wind. First the smoke was carried out to sea last night, but then brought back into Eastern Mass. by a SE wind this morning. It created a smog situation in Boston today. The smog should be gone by Tuesday morning, as showers move in. Wednesday will be the pick of the week, before more storms on Thursday. 

Boston, MA forecast: 

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers arriving after midnight. Lows in the 50's to near 60. 

Tuesday: Scattered showers until 10 AM, then partly sunny until 2 PM. Then severe thunderstorms likely after 2 PM. Windy and muggy with a high of 79. SW wind of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH. Some thunderstorms will produce small hail and wind gusts up to 60 MPH. 

Tuesday night: A severe thunderstorm possible before 8 PM, then clearing. Lows in the upper 50's.

Wednesday: Pick of the week with sunny skies and low humidity. Highs in the mid 80's. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers and storms likely by afternoon. Muggy with highs in the low 80's. 

Friday: Partly sunny with highs around 80.

Tropics: Hurricane Season begins on Tuesday, June 1. Currently, I am keeping an eye on a cluster of storms around southern Mexico. The first name on the list is Alex. 

Memorial Day Weekend

Today will be another summer-like day as a weak front crosses the region. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70's with a risk of a scattered thunderstorm. Then, it will become hot again as winds turn to the SW and pumps in warm air. The next threat of significant rain is Tuesday.

Boston, MA forecast:

Today: Sunny until 2 PM, then partly sunny with isolated thunderstorms. High 78 with SW wind of 10-20 MPH. Some thunderstorm may bring winds of 60 MPH and small hail.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms before 9 PM, then clearing. Lows in the 50's.

Sunday: A great beach day with bright sunshine and a high of 88.

Memorial Day: Sunny in the morning, then increasing clouds. Highs in the low 80's.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day. Highs around 80.

Tropics: The Atlantic basin is currently quiet, Hurricane season starts on Tuesday (June 1. )

Backdoor Cold Front

A back door cold front will come down from Maine on Wednesday afternoon. It is called a back door cold front because most fronts come from the west, NW or SW. The timing is huge, but the front should come through at around 2 PM. That is after temps reach the low 90's, and mid 90's to the SW of the city. Then, cool weather will come back for Thursday and Friday before the warmth returns for Memorial Day weekend.

Highs Today:
Logan: 82
Bedford: 88
Nashua, NH: 92
JP: 94


Boston, MA forecast:

Tonight: Warm and muggy. Lows around 70.

Wednesday: Because of the warm start temps will quickly rise through the 70's and 80's and into the low to mid 90's by early afternoon. However, temps falling into the mid 70's by 6 PM along the coast, including Boston. Sunny until 2 PM, then partly sunny with a chance of a thunderstorm after 2 PM. Remaining humid through early afternoon as well.

Wednesday: A chance of a thunderstorm before 8 PM, then remaining mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50's.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a risk of a shower. Cooler with highs around 70.

Friday: Sunny with highs around 70.

Saturday: A great day to start the long holiday weekend with sunny skies and highs in the 70's.

Sunday: Sunny, highs in the 80's.


Tropics: The storm centered around 400 miles SSW of North Carolina remains disorganized, despite 40 MPH winds. It will brush the Carolina coastline with gusty winds, showers and rough surf. It will likely not become the first tropical system of the season. Scroll down to my Saturday post to see my 2010 Hurricane outlook.

The Week Ahead

Today turned out to be more sunny than I was expecting and temps reached close to 70 in JP. The fog bank that is just offshore will come back inland tonight, and will burn off by noon on Monday. Then, the warm air will surge in on Tuesday, as temps soar to 90. Then, a backdoor cold front will cool us off.

Boston, MA forecast:

Tonight: Low clouds and fog come back in off the ocean. Lows around 50.

Monday: Fog and low clouds in the morning, then mainly sunny in the afternoon. Highs near 70 Downtown, 74 in JP and 77 inland. SE wind of 10-15 MPH.

Monday night: Fog comes back in with lows in the 50's.

Tuesday: Sunny, humid and hot. Highs around 90.

Wednesday: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs near 80 in the morning, falling to 60 by evening.

Thursday: Sunny and nice, highs around 70.

Friday: Rain and wind. Highs in the 60's.

Tropics: Continuing to keep an eye on a developing storm off the Florida coast. It is expected to make a close pass to the Carolina coast before heading out to sea. It may become Tropical Storm Alex in the next 48 hours.

SPECIAL-2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preview

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on June 1, and this is my forecast for the upcoming season. 

Review of facts: A Tropical Storm needs sustained winds of at least 39 MPH for it to be named. 

Hurricane Categories: A hurricane needs sustained winds of at least 74 MPH. Waters usually needs to be at least 80 degrees for a hurricane to form and hold or gain strength. 

Category 1: Winds of 74-94 MPH

Cat 2: Winds of 95-110 MPH. 

Cat 3: Winds of 111-130 MPH. A major hurricane is category 3 or greater. 

Cat 4: 131-155 MPH. 

Cat 5-: 155+ MPH- Strongest winds

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a projected path based on special computer models, and that is the track I will base my forecast on throughout the season. 

New England review: The last hurricane to make landfall in New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. The last tropical storm to make landfall was Tropical Storm Hannah in 2008. Last year Bill grazed Cape Cod with showers as it passed 250 miles offshore. Then, Tropical Storm Danny passed just SE of Nantucket, and gave us 4 inches of rain and gusty winds. However, it did not make landfall in MA. 

Averages: From 1950-2009 

Named storms: 10 

Hurricanes: 6 

Major Hurricanes: 4 

US landfall : 6  (Tropical Storms or Hurricanes) 

My Forecast for 2010:  

Named storms: 16

Hurricanes: 10 

Major Hurricanes: 4

US landfalls: 8

New England threats: 3 

Forecast of Tracks: I expect most storms to track off of Africa and heads toward southern Florida.  Most will go into the Gulf of Mexico or hit Florida, but some will take a right turn and come up the East coast. Some other storms will form in the Caribbean, and move into the Gulf Of Mexico and threaten the gulf coast states. The time period that most hurricanes form is August and early September. 

New England forecast: I expect a few hurricanes to threaten New England this summer. When a storm heads toward Florida and takes a turn, most move North or NE. That makes a big difference, as a track to the NE would take it out to sea. However, a more northerly track would take it right into New England. Usually, storms lose some of their strength while heading up the coast because the water is cooler than 80 degrees. When a storm forms off of the Carolina coast, it has a better chance of hitting us. Because if it moves NE from there it would hit part of the MA coastline. I expect most storm threats to be in late July through early September, however we can have a storm at an earlier time. 

Current Outlook: A low pressure center is centered near the Bahamas and is expected to intensify. I'm not sure if it will be named, because it may not become truly tropical. Then it will be forced towards the east coast by Monday and hammer the Outer Banks of North Carolina with rain, gusty winds and rough seas. Models are undecided on where it goes from there. One sends it out to sea, the other sends on a loop back to the Bahamas. I will keep you updated in the next couple of days. 

Sunny for a while

I don't expect much rain around here for the next 6 days or so. There is a slight risk of a shower on Sunday, but other than that the storm track is well to our south. Temps will remain mainly in the 70's to near 80 this weekend, before spiking to 9o by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Boston, MA Forecast:

Tonight: Clear with lows near 62 Downtown, 60 in JP and 58 in the suburbs. Keep the windows open.

Friday: Sunny with a sea breeze. Highs near 68 Downtown, 72 in JP and 77 inland. NE wind of 10 -15 MPH.

Friday night: Clear with lows around 60.

Saturday: Mainly sunny and mild for my brother's 13th birthday party. Highs near 73.

Sunday: A slow moving, weakening low pressure center will pass south of the region, but we may have an isolated shower. Partly sunny and humid with highs near 75.

Monday and Tuesday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80's to low 90's.

Tropics: I will post my 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast on Saturday. Hurricane season starts on June 1. Stay tuned!

A Spring Nor'easter

A powerful ocean storm is on our doorstep, as it has been raining all day on the Cape and islands. The rain will slowly come north, and then become heavy overnight. The heaviest rain will occur before 11 AM, before tapering off. Once this storm moves away, we are in the clear for a while. The weekend storm looks to head well out to sea.


Boston, MA forecast


Tonight: Showers until 9 PM, then heavy rain. Becoming windy with lows around 50. NE winds increasing to 15-20 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH on the Cape, and 35 MPH in Boston.

Wednesday: Heavy rain until 11 AM, then showers and drizzle. Foggy with a high of 53. NE winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH on the Cape and 35 MPH in Boston. Total rainfall of 1-3 inches in Boston and points south.

Wednesday night: Fog, mist and drizzle in the evening, then partial clearing after midnight. Lows in the 40's.

Thursday: A great turnaround with clearing skies and highs in the upper 70's.

Friday: Another nice day with sunny skies and highs around 80.

Saturday and Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny as a second storm heads out to sea. Highs in the 70's.

World weather: A rare tropical cyclone in the Arabian sea will make landfall tonight on Oman with winds near 70 MPH. Ocean temps are way above normal throughout the world. Stay tuned for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast this weekend.

The nice weather continues

The past 2 days I have had my Model UN conference at Northeastern. So, I have been quite busy with research and the debates have gone all day. The sunny and warm weather will continue through the first part of the week. Then, the first ocean storm in a while will approach and make a close pass to New England on Wednesday. Then, summer-like weather returns for the end of the week.

Boston, MA forecast:

Today: A great day with blue skies and a high of 74. NW of 15-25 MPH.

Tonight: Clear, lows near 49 Downtown, 46 in JP and 41 in the suburbs.

Monday: Another winner with sunny skies and high of 76. SW wind of 10-20 MPH.

Monday night: Clear with lows in the 40's.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then increasing clouds with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 70.

Wednesday: Watching a ocean storm that will make a close pass to New England. Cooler with highs in the 60's.

Thursday and Friday: Warm air surges in behind the storm. Sunny with highs around 80.

Stay tuned: I will be posting my 2010 Atlantic Hurricane forecast in the coming weeks. Hurricane season starts on June 1.

A nice Thursday

Today was a dreary day with low clouds, some light showers and cool temps. Thursday will be better with sunny skies and temps around normal. It will be a nice day for our Physics 2 field trip to an amusement park in Bristol, CT. After showers on Friday, the weekend will be great with sunny skies and temps near 70.

Boston, MA forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows near 43 Downtown, 41 in JP and 36 in some outlying suburbs.

Thursday: Finally the warmer temps come back with sunny skies. Highs near 62 Downtown, 65 in JP and 68 inland. A NE wind of 10-15 MPH.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely by dawn. Lows in the 40's.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms until 11 AM, then partly sunny with a chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the mid 60's.

Saturday: Sunny, highs in the mid 60's.

Sunday: Sunny, highs around 70.

Happy Mother's Day !

Happy Mother's day to all the mothers out there, and I hope you had a nice, relaxing weekend. Today was windy and chilly, and that pattern will continue tomorrow. A huge branch came down on my friends' street and landed on their neighbor's roof. Many trees came down throughout the area, including one near Brookline Village. Cool temps will continue all week, with rain on Wednesday.

Alerts:

A FREEZE Warning is in effect for the areas north and west of 128 until 8 AM Monday. A freeze warning is issued when temps are expected to dip below 30.

A Frost Advisory is in effect for the coast, excluding the city until 8 AM Monday. Even though no frost advisory has been issued for JP as of now, I do expect some patchy frost. I suggest bringing all plants inside, because temps will get very close to freezing.

The week ahead:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Widespread frost with lows near 39 at Logan, 35 in JP and 28 north and west of 128. Please bring plants inside!

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds and cool with a high of 55. NW wind of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Monday night: Clear and colder than Sunday night. Lows in the mid 30's in Boston to the mid 20's' the suburbs. I expect frost in Boston this time.

Tuesday: Sunny and a bit warmer. Highs in the upper 50's.

Wednesday: Periods of rain and wind. Chilly with highs in the upper 40's.

Thursday: Partial clearing with highs in the upper 50's.

Friday: Sunny and warmer, highs in the mid 60's.

Severe Thunderstorm!

A storm is rolling through JP with hail, downpours and a flash of lightning. Please get inside. The rain should last less than 20 min. More storms may roll through later tonight.

Posted at 510 PM- updates if more storms come.

Rain for a while

Even though I thought at around 930 would be our last downpour, more downpours suddenly formed near the RI border and moved NE and right into Boston. There will be some breaks, but showers and downpours with rumbles of thunder will continue for the next couple of hours. My game that I was scheduled to ump at 1130 has been postponed. The Red Sox-yanks game at 3 is in question, and I am afraid that the field will be too wet for my brother's game at 430 this afternoon.


Alerts: A Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon until 8 AM Sunday morning for all of the area.

A Flood Advisory is in effect for the area south of Boston.

Boston, MA forecast:

Today: Showers and downpours until 1 PM, then severe thunderstorms possible until 4 PM. Then, partly sunny after 4 PM. Highs in the mid 60's. NW wind increasing to 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH after 5 PM. Some thunderstorms may bring frequent lightning and small hail.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and windy with lows near 45 in Boston, 42 in JP and 39 in the suburbs. NW wind of 25-35 with gusts to 50 MPH.

Mother's Day: Sunny and windy. Cool with a high of 57. NW wind of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH. Frost is possible at night.

Monday: Sunny with highs near 60. Frost is possible again at night.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then increasing clouds. Highs in the low 60's.

I will update if a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Warning is issued.

A split Mother's Day weekend

A storm will come through the area on Saturday in parts. First, it will rain for a good part of the morning, then the sun may come out around noon. But, that will set off some severe thunderstorms in the mid and late afternoon. Especially, in Boston and points south. Then, Mother's Day will be partly sunny, windy and cool. Then seasonable weather will hang around for the first part of next week.

Boston, MA forecast:

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy until 3 AM, then showers. Lows in the low 50's. SW around 10 MPH.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms until 10 AM, then partly sunny in between 10 AM and 2 PM. Then severe thunderstorms likely after 2 PM. My brother's game at 430 PM at Daisy is in question. Windy with highs ranging from 60 in southern NH to 70 in Boston, and 74 on the South Shore. SW winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH. Severe thunderstorms after 2 PM may bring hail, winds of 60 MPH and frequent lightning.

Saturday night: Severe thunderstorms possible before 8 PM, then partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the mid 40's. West wind of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH.

Mother's Day: Partly sunny and cool. High 58. West wind of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Monday: Sunny with highs around 60.

Changing day to day

A cold front will quickly come through the area on Thursday bringing us showers and storms during the middle of the day. However, I don't expect severe storms, even though there may be some showers that bring thunder and lightning. Skies should clear out in the time for the Sox game I am going to at 7 PM. Then Friday will be mainly sunny with highs near 70. Then another front will come through with showers on Saturday, before cooler air will come in for Mother's day.


Boston, MA forecast:

Tonight: Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows near 59 Downtown, 56 in JP and 53 in the suburbs.

Thursday: Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms in between 9 AM and 3 PM. Then sunny after 3 PM. Muggy with a high of 74. SW wind of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH shifting to NW in the afternoon.

Thursday night: Clear with lows in the 40's.

Friday: Sunny with highs around 70.

Saturday: Showers through 1 PM, then some clearing is possible. Highs in the upper 60's.

Mother's Day: Sunny, breezy and cooler with highs in the upper 50's.

Severe threat mainly over

The cell that was headed right for us faded out in west Newton, as the strongest part missed JP to the north. The strongest part of the cell went through Medford, Malden and Winthrop. Meanwhile, another cell went through Hyde Park and Dedham. Downed trees and hail were reported all over the Boston area, as winds gusted to 70 MPH in central mass. Now, skies will clear after 8 PM and Wednesday will be a great day with temps hitting the 70's with no severe threat.

Alerts: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM tonight

Tonight: Showers and isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and winds gusting to 60 MPH until 8 PM, then clearing. Lows near 57 Downtown, 54 in JP and 49 in the suburbs.

Wednesday: A great day with deep blue skies and a high of 77. A west wind of 10-20 MPH.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with lows in the 50's.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Severe storms are possible again. Highs in the mid 70's.

Friday: Sunny with highs in the low 70's.

Saturday: Showers likely in the morning, then it will dry out for the afternoon. Cooler with highs in the 60's.

Severe Thunderstorm WARNING!

Severe Storm headed towards Boston, please get inside. This intense thunderstorm will produce hail, and winds over 60 MPH. It should hit JP in about 20-30 Min. Please close all the windows as well, as it will pour for a short period of time. Take shelter as soon as you can!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for only Worcester county and southern NH for the moment. However, I expect it will be expanded as the severe line comes through. As of 345 PM, the squall line is located in western MA. If it holds together, this line will come through the Boston area by 7PM. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued get inside, and stay away from windows. I will continue to keep you updated throughout the evening.

Posted at 345 PM.

Storms coming

A strong line of showers is about to come through JP. Please go inside for the next 20-30 minutes to allow the storms to pass. Some of these storms may have small hail and some lightning. It will rain hard for less than 20 minutes, and then an additional line may come through. Winds may gust over 50 MPH in the next hour.

Posted at about 4- Please take shelter just in case we get a storm.

A forecast for the rest of the week later.