Tough Call

Well, this is the toughest forecast for a winter storm I have made since I started this blog. The American model I trust, takes nearly the entire storm out to sea-giving us less than 5 inches or so. However, most of the international guidance gives us an all out Blizzard with up to 20 inches. I will be taking a conservative middle road in the Boston area, and this is supported by another global model. Keep in mind it will probably change and I will blog again before the storm starts.

Alerts:

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Boston area from 5 PM Wednesday until 10 AM Thursday.

Boston, MA forecast:

Tonight: Clear this evening, then increasing clouds after midnight. Lows near 14.

Wednesday morning: Mostly cloudy with temps rising into the mid 20's.

Storm Timeline: Also tough to pinpoint

6 PM: Snow arrives in Boston

10 PM-6AM: Heavy snow, snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Temps in the mid 20's.

9 AM: Snow ends in Boston.

Amounts: Probably will change. A little less now than I was thinking earlier tonight.

7-10: The Boston metro area. Around 9 inches in JP.

4-7: North and west of 128.

Winds:

60 MPH: Nantucket

50: The Cape and vineyard

40: The Boston area.

Stay tuned for an update during the day on Wednesday.