SPECIAL: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30th. This is my preview of the upcoming season.

Note: Scroll to the end to see my latest forecast

Review of Facts;

A Tropical Storm (TS) needs winds of at least 39 MPH to be given a name.

Hurricane categories:

Category 1: Winds of 74-94 MPH.

Category 2: Winds of 95-110 MPH

Category 3: Winds of 111-130 MPH. A major Hurricane is Cat 3 or higher.

Category 4: Winds of 131-155 MPH.

Category 5: Winds of 155+ MPH

Note: The National Hurricane Center gives there projected path based on a combo of weather models. The official track goes out 5 days and gives the position and winds speeds. I will be using their forecast on my blog.

New England Review: Last year Hurricane Arthur passed just SE of the area on the 4th of July leading to flooding rains in some parts of the area. The last Hurricane to make landfall was Hurricane Bob in 1991. The last TS was Hannah in 2008.

Atlantic Hurricane Season averages:

Named Storms: 12
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes 3
US Landfalls: 3

My 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast:

Named Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes 2
US Landfall: 2


2015 Forecasts of Tracks:

Tracks will be similar to last year with most storms forming in the Gulf Of Mexico or the western Atlantic. And storms may threaten the east coast as well. Most storms will form later in the season, but storms can form at any time.

2015 New England Forecast:

I believe that New England has an average chance of a storm this year. Especially in August or September. As storms that from near the SE coast of the US could come north and effect the area.
However, I also believe that there will be fewer storms forming in the Middle Atlantic and gaining more strength before coming close the US.

Boston forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds with a low of 65. SW wind of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

Sunday: Scattered showers in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temps near 73 in the morning will fall to 60 by 5 PM. Wind changing to NE at 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

Sunday night: Periods of rain. Lows around 50. NE wind of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

Monday: Periods of rain. Highs in the mid 50's.

Tuesday: More rain likely. Highs in the mid 50's.

Wednesday: Some clearing likely. Highs in the 60's.