SPECIAL: 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preview

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. This is my preview for the upcoming season.

Note :Scroll to the end to see my latest forecast.

Review of Facts:

A Tropical Storm (TS) needs winds of at least 39 MPH to be given a name.

Hurricane Categories;.

Category 1: Winds of 74-94 MPH.
Category 2: Winds of 95-110 MPH.
Category 3: Winds of 111-130 MPH. A major Hurricane is cat 3 or higher,
Category 4: Winds of 131-155 MPH.
Category 5: Winds of 156+ MPH.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives a projected path based on global weather models. I will give my forecast based on that path. The track goes out 5 days and gives a forecast of winds and position.

New England Review: Last year we had Hurricane Irene come up the east coast and brought rain and strong winds to the area. However, it made landfall in NJ and went west of Boston. The last Hurricane to make landfall in MA was Hurricane Bob in 1991. The last TS to make landfall was Hanna in 2008.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Averages:

Named Storms; 12
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 3
US Landfall: 4 (TS or Hurricane)

My forecast for 2012 season:

Named Storms; 13
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 3
US Landfall: 3 (TS or Hurricane)
New England Threats: 2

2012 Forecast of tracks:

I expect early storms to form near the coast and make a quick landfall, especially near the SE coast and Gulf of Mexico. I believe the major cities of New Orleans,LA and Miami, FL have an above average chance of a storm this season. I think that there will be less storms that form off the coast of Africa and come towards the States, until maybe later in the season. But, it is important for any East coast resident to be prepared for a storm.

2012 New England Preview:

I believe that we have a chance for a couple storms this season. The best chance early in the season will be a storm that forms along the SE coast and turns north into New England. Then, by mid August there will be storms that form out in the central Atlantic and come up the east coast and make a close pass. The most likely place for Tropical Cyclone is the Outer Cape and Nantucket, but people should be ready in Boston as well.

Current Outlook:

 TS Alberto formed last weekend and fell apart along the SE coast. Now, a cluster of storms close to the same spot is forecast to become TS Beryl this weekend. Stay tuned for more updates.

Boston Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Low 60.

Saturday: Increasing sunshine. High 87. SW wind of 10-20 MPH,

Saturday night: Partly cloudy with lows in the low 60.

Sunday: Cloudy until 5 PM, then scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70's,

Memorial Day: Clearing with highs in the upper 70's.