SPECIAL: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on June 1st and ends November 30th. This is my preview of the upcoming season.

Note: Scroll to the end to see my latest forecast

Review of Facts:

A Tropical Storm (TS) needs winds of at least 39 MPH to be given a name.

Hurricane Categories:

Category 1: Winds of 74-94 MPH.
Category 2: Winds of 95-110 MPH.
Category 3: Winds of 111-130 MPH. A major hurricane is Cat 3 or higher
Category 4 : Winds of 131-155  MPH.
Category 5: Winds of 155+MPH.


Note: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives there projected path based on a combo of weather models. The track goes out 5 days and gives projections of position and wind speeds. I will be using their forecast in my blog.

New England Review:

Last year was a quiet year and no storms threatened the area for the first time in a few years. The last Hurricane to make landfall here was Hurricane Bob in 1991. The last TS to make landfall was Tropical Storm Hannah in 2008.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Averages:

Total Storms: 12
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 3
US Landfall (TS or Hurricane): 3

My Forecast for 2014:

Total Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 5
Major Hurricanes: 3
US Landfall (TS or Hurricane): 2
New England Threats: 1

2014 Forecast of Tracks:

This year there will be less storms forming off the coast of Africa and across the Atlantic. But, some storms could form in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean and threaten some parts of the US coast. There may also be some Hurricanes that form close to the East coast and hit the coast there. The best chance for a storm is later in the season, but it is important to be ready for a storm at any point. Also, even though I am expecting a below average season people need to be ready in the Hurricane zone.

2014 New England Forecast:

I believe that there will be a below average chance for a Hurricane in New England this year. Mainly because there will be less storms forming out in the Atlantic and coming up the coast. However, there may be a chance of a storm forming close to the coast and affecting us that way. The best chance for a storm is later in the season, but a storm could hit at any time.

Boston forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 50.

Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 70. SE wind of 10-20 MPH.

Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50's.

Memorial Day: Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80's.

Tuesday: Showers and storms possible. Highs in the mid 70's.

Wednesday: Dry with highs in the 60's.